Flashpoint: Georgia

[One Eyed Cat]

How the frozen conflict turned into a flash fire

Helen Womack
The Guardian


Why has fighting broken out?
The South Ossetians and Georgians have been sniping at each other for several weeks and patience on both sides has finally snapped. South Ossetia and Georgia's other breakaway region, Abkhazia, have enjoyed de facto independence since the early 1990s but Tbilisi has never recognised the loss of its territory. The dispute between Georgia and the two regions was called "the frozen conflict" because the issues remain unresolved, but there was no fighting. The heat began to rise this year when the west recognised Kosovo, against Russia's advice. The South Ossetians and Abkhazians argued that if Kosovo could be independent, then so could they.

What is the basis of the region's claim to independence?
The Ossetians are descendants of a tribe called the Alans. Like the Georgians, the Ossetians are Orthodox Christians but they have their own language. In Soviet times, the Ossetians had an autonomous region within Georgia. The Georgians say the Ossetians cooperated with the Bolsheviks and tended to be more pro-Soviet. Their ethnic kin live across the border in the Russian region of North Ossetia, so today they feel more drawn to Russia than to Georgia and many have Russian passports.

Abkhazia on the Black Sea coast was also an autonomous region of Georgia in Soviet times. It has a mixed population of Abkhaz, Mingrelians, Greeks, Armenians, Russians and Georgians and a small but significant Muslim minority. Thousands of ethnic Georgians fled their homes in Abkhazia during the civil war in the early 90s and now live as refugees in Tbilisi and Moscow.

Why has Russia become involved?
Russia says it cannot stand aside because many of the people in the breakaway regions are its citizens. Georgia accuses Russia of meddling in its internal affairs and supporting the separatists, although Russia's peacekeepers are supposed to be in a neutral role. Georgia accuses Russia of double standards in suppressing its own separatist rebellion in Chechnya while encouraging separatists in Georgia. Russia has become more engaged in the region since Georgia expressed an interest in joining Nato, the very idea of which appalls Moscow.

What might happen next?
So far, this has been a proxy war, with Russia encouraging the separatists, but Russia and Georgia could find themselves in direct conflict. Russia's prime minister, Vladimir Putin, today accused Georgia of aggression and warned that a response was inevitable. Georgia said Russian jets had started bombing its territory.

What are the wider implications?
The conflict could widen out further still, with former Soviet republics supporting Russia and the US and Europe backing Georgia. The root of the problem is that the world community cannot agree on rules for the independence of small regions.

[Head Wreck]

last i heard, Georgia has asked for all its troops in afganistan/iraq (2,000 if i recall correctly) to be airlifted out and home.

ho hum.

i just knew Putin's rattling of the sabre would end up provoking something silly

[One Eyed Cat]

last i heard, Georgia has asked for all its troops in afganistan/iraq (2,000 if i recall correctly) to be airlifted out and home.

ho hum.

i just knew Putin's rattling of the sabre would end up provoking something silly

It's a grave situation. I just saw Saakashvili on CNN at a liquor store. I can't tell what the totality of the situation is yet. There have already been a lot of fatalities though.

[OrganizedKhaos]

Damn.

[One Eyed Cat]

Damn.

Hoping for a ceasefire. This is beyond senseless killing at this point.

[Head Wreck]

hope so to

[Bacchus88]

Georgia is ally that has sent soldier in both Iraq and Afghanistan.. Has put there own sons and daughters in harms way. To leave them high dry, I want US to do something military action or simplify supplies. In realty, our hands are tried because of Iraq. Russia knows that, i do not think they would have pushed this other wise.

Open War with Russia, thats hard one to think about that. That could spin the world in another world War. Russia has to means to stand toe to toe with the US and The Eu. Now that my friend would be can worms no one want to see happen

[Morning Glory]

I support Georgia and Chechnya for independence, but there's no way that they are going to accomplish anything effective in this action (Georgia's presence in Chechnya, that is), other than provoking Russia to attack them and to justify taking more land and/or control of the region.

They were hoping to get sympathy from Nato and thier western allies, but they miscalculated. They are not going to go up against Russia, it's as simple as that. They only care about war when it's profitable, they don't give a shit about really fighting for democracy.

oh yeah, and I don't agree with Ossetia. If they wanted to remain indepednant, that is one thing, but it's not right for them to try and cede from Georgia and become part of Russia. There's no way that they (georgia) couldn't see that as a conquering invasion of territory by a foriegn power. That would be like if california tried to become a part of mexico.

[One Eyed Cat]

I support Georgia and Chechnya for independence, but there's no way that they are going to accomplish anything effective in this action (Georgia's presence in Chechnya, that is), other than provoking Russia to attack them and to justify taking more land and/or control of the region.

They were hoping to get sympathy from Nato and thier western allies, but they miscalculated. They are not going to go up against Russia, it's as simple as that. They only care about war when it's profitable, they don't give a shit about really fighting for democracy.

oh yeah, and I don't agree with Ossetia. If they wanted to remain indepednant, that is one thing, but it's not right for them to try and cede from Georgia and become part of Russia. There's no way that they (georgia) couldn't see that as a conquering invasion of territory by a foriegn power. That would be like if california tried to become a part of mexico.

It's fairly obvious we won't do a damn thing about it. I would mostly like to see a ceasefire at this point. Russia is attacking Georgia well beyond Ossetia and Abkhazia.

[Morning Glory]

It seems unavoidable. It's kind of like the isreali-palestine situation. unless both sides drastically change thier viewpoints, then there is never going to be more than a temporary solution to the dispute.

[One Eyed Cat]

It seems unavoidable. It's kind of like the isreali-palestine situation. unless both sides drastically change thier viewpoints, then there is never going to be more than a temporary solution to the dispute.

Were Russia to refrain from attacking the sovereign territory of another country, the process would be easier. The situations in South Ossetia and Abkhazia are quite different than Palestine. They could be mediated. I find it dubious that Russia is sincere in its concern for those specific regions. They have escalated the war to half of Georgia.

[Buster Friendly]

OEC, you're way more keyed into what's going on in that region of the world than most of us, just what the heck does Russia think it's doing?

Flexing it's muscle?

Trying to prove that the west won't take them on? (Because honestly the last thing we need right now is one more bullshit military conflict.)

Is there something the Georgians have that Russia wants? Is it a straight land grab?

Because if the whole point is "Nyah, nyah, we're so tough, and you can't do shit about it." then it seems pretty short sighted, and asinine. The EU will just wait them out, like they're waiting the US out.

If it's a straight land grab, it also seems pretty short sighted. It'll take alot more for folks to trust them in the future, not to act like maniacs.

Do the Russians have some sort of half legitimate point here?

Well, who knows I've been informed that one must have a "russian soul" to understand anything they do, so....

[One Eyed Cat]

OEC, you're way more keyed into what's going on in that region of the world than most of us, just what the heck does Russia think it's doing?

Flexing it's muscle?

Trying to prove that the west won't take them on? (Because honestly the last thing we need right now is one more bullshit military conflict.)

Is there something the Georgians have that Russia wants? Is it a straight land grab?

Because if the whole point is "Nyah, nyah, we're so tough, and you can't do shit about it." then it seems pretty short sighted, and asinine. The EU will just wait them out, like they're waiting the US out.

If it's a straight land grab, it also seems pretty short sighted. It'll take alot more for folks to trust them in the future, not to act like maniacs.

Do the Russians have some sort of half legitimate point here?

Well, who knows I've been informed that one must have a "russian soul" to understand anything they do, so....

Russia sees their "near abroad" as essentially still part of their empire. They are upset at Georgia and Ukraine for aligning more with the west. Russia's talking point is Georgian military action in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This would be more plausible had they not continued to advance into Georgia. They are believed to be in control of approximately 1/2 of the country. I see it more as wounded pride to be honest. One can argue pipelines and such. I think Russia just wants Georgia to remain in their sphere of influence. There is no possibility of direct military intervention by the U.S. What is kind of amazing: Putin isn't even blinking. I don't think he is necessarily directly challenging the west. He is showing they will do as they please. The real problem is the ease at which this could escalate.

OEC

[Buster Friendly]

Who's going to escalate it though? The Georgians?

I mean, if the russians are going to act like spoiled shitty little brats just because their empire went away, then they're not going to be taken seriously by the EU, and I'm pretty sure that the Asians already think of them as foolish children.

Does the Ukraine have the troop strength to make Russia leave them alone?

The US may be in decline at the moment, but we could possibly rebound. And if we have actually intelligent leaders for a change (Sometime in the next decade maybe) isolating Russia won't be that hard. We haven't fallen so far yet, and they haven't risen so much.

It all seems a bit premature to me, but what do I know?

[One Eyed Cat]

Who's going to escalate it though? The Georgians?

I mean, if the russians are going to act like spoiled shitty little brats just because their empire went away, then they're not going to be taken seriously by the EU, and I'm pretty sure that the Asians already think of them as foolish children.

Does the Ukraine have the troop strength to make Russia leave them alone?

The US may be in decline at the moment, but we could possibly rebound. And if we have actually intelligent leaders for a change (Sometime in the next decade maybe) isolating Russia won't be that hard. We haven't fallen so far yet, and they haven't risen so much.

It all seems a bit premature to me, but what do I know?

Ukraine's problem is that Russia used The Black Sea Fleet (stationed under contract in the Crimea, Ukraine until 2017). Georgia really can't do anything. Their troops are fleeing every town russian tanks roll into. Ukraine and Russia are giving conflicting statements as to the return of the BSF to the Crimea. This is more an immediate term problem. Putin caught everyone offguard. In the long run, I would agree. We will be able to isolate Russia once we stop with the tomfoolery in the Middle East (keeping in mind we will have to deal with them on some levels) My concern is mainly escalation in the region. This would take place in regions that have de facto independence and backing by the russians. The place that comes to mind is Transdnistra. They are part of Moldova but have de facto independence backed by Russia. That's more my concern over the immediate term. The region just can't afford more senseless fighting and destruction of infrastructure.

[Mr Karl]

hmmmmm..............

[DoctorZ]

Ya... This is just what I believe, and you can shoot me down if you want, but I sincerely believe that the world is stagnating, and the only way for us to dig ourselves out of this is another World War.

[Senior_Diablo]

::starts making plans for bomb shelter::

[Mr Karl]

Ya... This is just what I believe, and you can shoot me down if you want, but I sincerely believe that the world is stagnating, and the only way for us to dig ourselves out of this is another World War.

no, what we need is to create this one world government, live with that for a while and then have one big civil war

[Senior_Diablo]

no, what we need is to create this one world government, live with that for a while and then have one big civil war

no! not another one for people to reenact like 200 yrs later! lol

[Mr Karl]

we gotta give them something to reenact

[Bacchus88]

Could be more or less based on the economics of the area
Natural resources: forests, hydropower, manganese deposits, iron ore, copper, minor coal and oil deposits; coastal climate and soils allow for important tea and citrus growth
Industries: steel, aircraft, machine tools, electrical appliances, mining (manganese and copper), chemicals, wood products, wine
Georgia not really tapping into there fields and Russia being the 3rd lagrest exporter of oil 5,080,000 Oil - exports (bbl/day) As of 2007

Georiga Oil - proved reserves 35,000,000 BBL as of 2006
if that was all true Russia would have already hit the Ukraine and other former state. its aspect to look at.....
All facts came from here
https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...k/geos/gg.html

[One Eyed Cat]

Could be more or less based on the economics of the area
Natural resources: forests, hydropower, manganese deposits, iron ore, copper, minor coal and oil deposits; coastal climate and soils allow for important tea and citrus growth
Industries: steel, aircraft, machine tools, electrical appliances, mining (manganese and copper), chemicals, wood products, wine
Georgia not really tapping into there fields and Russia being the 3rd lagrest exporter of oil 5,080,000 Oil - exports (bbl/day) As of 2007

Georiga Oil - proved reserves 35,000,000 BBL as of 2006
if that was all true Russia would have already hit the Ukraine and other former state. its aspect to look at.....
All facts came from here
https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...k/geos/gg.html

Until recently, Russia was barely able to maintain any semblance of sovereignty over Chechnya. At this point, we just have to wait and see. I should mention: The United States lobbied to incorporate Georgia and Ukraine into NATO last year. Germany balked. It will be an interesting few years to say the least.

OEC

[Bacchus88]

OEC we have painted Bear into corner, they are not on very good terms with China. Nato pushing more into thier realm so to speak.Russia might felling surrounded, might need show the world it isnt that teddish any longer. It the old bear we know and fear. I agree it will be interest, I do not think this will be last thing we see out of the bear. It isnt like they do not have military means to stand up to Nato, EU, or US. US is tried down....

[One Eyed Cat]

OEC we have painted Bear into corner, they are not on very good terms with China. Nato pushing more into thier realm so to speak.Russia might felling surrounded, might need show the world it isnt that teddish any longer. It the old bear we know and fear. I agree it will be interest, I do not think this will be last thing we see out of the bear. It isnt like they do not have military means to stand up to Nato, EU, or US. US is tried down....

We need to start by recognizing we are dealing with an adversary. We can work with Russia only on matters of mutual self-interest. Beyond that, I believe we need to protect our own interests and those of our allies wishing to join the alliance. I'm mostly just tired of the mindless minions who can't even see the sky as being blue. We invade countries that are of no credible threat to us. We call ourselves "humanitarians" in so doing. I see some Americans as citizens ... some as mere consumers of CNN. I'm glad you at least recognize what may well be yet to come.

OEC

[Senior_Diablo]

so..invade Russia?..they probably wouldnt expect it..lol

[One Eyed Cat]

so..invade Russia?..they probably wouldnt expect it..lol

Unequivocally, Not. There will be no war with Russia. At this point, we need to step back and assess what happened. We have troops in Georgia as we speak. We need calm, peace, and negotiations for now. Future actions would not include a direct military option. We need to be firm from this point forward, however.

OEC

[Senior_Diablo]

yeah..i was just joking..i think it would be a big problem if we did go to war with Russia.. what do you think will happen with all this?

[One Eyed Cat]

yeah..i was just joking..i think it would be a big problem if we did go to war with Russia.. what do you think will happen with all this?

I don't know. There's a lot going on behind the scenes. We won't know for weeks or months what the long term effects may be.

[Senior_Diablo]

I don't know. There's a lot going on behind the scenes. We won't know for weeks or months what the long term effects may be.

must be..Russia was all like "ahh mother land!..where's my vodka? ahhh!" and they were pwning the shit out of everything.... then last i heard there is a cease fire..... i guess we'll just have to wait and see, eh?

[Ajax Knucklebones]

must be..Russia was all like "ahh mother land!..where's my vodka? ahhh!" and they were pwning the shit out of everything.... then last i heard there is a cease fire..... i guess we'll just have to wait and see, eh?

Da.

[Morning Glory]

I think that the US has done the right thing for once in this situation, they pushed toward the peace process, and worked the diplomacy. Now they are sending in spies... er, I mean humanitarian aid workers into the region which will give us good diplomatic leverage, since Russia will be on it's toes to not try and get away with shit it may have otherwise done under a lack of scrutiny.

ultimatley it seems to have worked out for all sides to flex their muscles, and then be content to let things cool down and a relatively minor cost in terms of damage. yeah, it was still pretty bad, but it could have been a lot worse.

[Senior_Diablo]

I think that the US has done the right thing for once in this situation, they pushed toward the peace process, and worked the diplomacy. Now they are sending in spies... er, I mean humanitarian aid workers into the region which will give us good diplomatic leverage, since Russia will be on it's toes to not try and get away with shit it may have otherwise done under a lack of scrutiny.

ultimatley it seems to have worked out for all sides to flex their muscles, and then be content to let things cool down and a relatively minor cost in terms of damage. yeah, it was still pretty bad, but it could have been a lot worse.

i guess it could always be a lot worse..they could be dealing with fallout..lol

[Bacchus88]

senior, the US has not fought an adversary like Russia in over 50 years. The Russian are bunch of hardass to be really be frank about it. They have the will to do what needs to be done so speak. As the US has means, but they do not have will....I do not think US and EU combined has enough for to might to face a full Russian counter attack.

Senior MADD is not an opinion, The 2 nation will have stand off, the world will stand still. If you have family that were living during the Cuban Missile Crisis ask them about that. That was the closet we ever came a true war with the Bear.

Its more than just the 2 nations involves our allies their allies. No one want to risk that. If it makes it to that point were we, can not come to an agreement. There is protocol in place ( I am very sure both Nation would have it) 1st the land base missile will strike military installation, some time will place for more talking about 6-12 hours. 2nd the sub will strike points of interest and government installation and bomber will be sent up. 3rd how every long it takes the bombers to make it to the target 14 hours or so. Then the bombing runs of major cities and pretty much at that point nothing is left.

Noted that the land base ICBM have MIRV Warhead which is another deadly aspect... Star wars missile defense system I would be pray we had that in place that could make damn difference

[One Eyed Cat]

senior, the US has not fought an adversary like Russia in over 50 years. The Russian are bunch of hardass to be really be frank about it. They have the will to do what needs to be done so speak. As the US has means, but they do not have will....I do not think US and EU combined has enough for to might to face a full Russian counter attack.

Senior MADD is not an opinion, The 2 nation will have stand off, the world will stand still. If you have family that were living during the Cuban Missile Crisis ask them about that. That was the closet we ever came a true war with the Bear.

Its more than just the 2 nations involves our allies their allies. No one want to risk that. If it makes it to that point were we, can not come to an agreement. There is protocol in place ( I am very sure both Nation would have it) 1st the land base missile will strike military installation, some time will place for more talking about 6-12 hours. 2nd the sub will strike points of interest and government installation and bomber will be sent up. 3rd how every long it takes the bombers to make it to the target 14 hours or so. Then the bombing runs of major cities and pretty much at that point nothing is left.

Noted that the land base ICBM have MIRV Warhead which is another deadly aspect... Star wars missile defense system I would be pray we had that in place that could make damn difference

True. There is no military option. Putin is essentially the smartest and strongest leader on the planet. He has the cards to play now. I don't see either presidential candidate as able to do more than contain whatever his ambitions may be going forward.

[Senior_Diablo]

senior, the US has not fought an adversary like Russia in over 50 years. The Russian are bunch of hardass to be really be frank about it. They have the will to do what needs to be done so speak. As the US has means, but they do not have will....I do not think US and EU combined has enough for to might to face a full Russian counter attack.

Senior MADD is not an opinion, The 2 nation will have stand off, the world will stand still. If you have family that were living during the Cuban Missile Crisis ask them about that. That was the closet we ever came a true war with the Bear.

Its more than just the 2 nations involves our allies their allies. No one want to risk that. If it makes it to that point were we, can not come to an agreement. There is protocol in place ( I am very sure both Nation would have it) 1st the land base missile will strike military installation, some time will place for more talking about 6-12 hours. 2nd the sub will strike points of interest and government installation and bomber will be sent up. 3rd how every long it takes the bombers to make it to the target 14 hours or so. Then the bombing runs of major cities and pretty much at that point nothing is left.

Noted that the land base ICBM have MIRV Warhead which is another deadly aspect... Star wars missile defense system I would be pray we had that in place that could make damn difference

i totally agree...Russia would pwn us if it ever came to that..

[Bacchus88]

Senior_Diablo

I mispoke earlier..Russia would not pwn us, rather it would be other way around. Only way Russia would pwn US would be ground war in the cities. I didnt really think about fact the US would be fighting a Nation and not group.Look at the opening of Iraq war at the time were fight nation. They had t-72s, good bit of Russian hardware, we rolled thought like thunder. That happen in the first gulf war also, fact the US military is being healed back. Mission has changed in Iraq...Lets take the Nuclear weapons out, just base it off of standard might. If Russia and the US went war, over the fact Russia invade EU.

Russia has a lot of old military hardware, they can bring up at moment notice. Soviet military complex, was base on weapons of war that were multi-rolled and mass produce easily. The Hi-24 hind D, it was gunship, but yet it would carry troops. Not unit the later years of USSR, did they start make single rolled Mig 29, SU-27. US and some of our allies took making weapons of war that had a roll to fill. F-18 hornet it is strike, f-14D Tomcat was an interceptor ,(but now is class as fighter).A-10 thunderbolt was design to combat Soviet armor, its nothing more than tanker.

There is hell of a lot T-72, they are not really that advanced. T-80 and even t-90s little more but not by much, again there is lot of them. Compared to the Leo 2 and M1A1 they are really are no comparison. Truly the age of tank is also long gone, it role now is to clean up while the solider. Air power!!! we control the skies Russia doesnt have a chance. Not all of our Carriers are groups are in the middle east. I do not care what country you are, you do not want US carrier battle group sitting off your cost. Unlike most nation Troop are not our strongest point. It air power, its the simple fact that we have large air base around the world. To name few Ramstein Air force base in Germany, Thule Air Base Greenland, Madrid Spain, UK.... Really think just how many military installation we really have in Europe. How many European Nation are sporting US hardware?

Our heavy bombers taking off from Greenland or UK could be in Russian air space within a few hours. B-52s, B-1Bs and the B-2, B-52 is really our work horse around 700 of them are still in service. 70,000 Lbs of bombs god....

[Senior_Diablo]

...hmm.you seem to know a thing or two about Russia's and the US's military capabilities..lol.. ...i knew the Iraq military had Russian stuff(who doesnt in the region? lol)... but i thought their current stuff was good...also, i was kinda thinking that Russia wouldnt hold back..you know, go all out. probably use nukes and whatnot... what do you think?

[One Eyed Cat]

There will be no active war between the US and Russia. All we need to do is call their bluff. If they say it's about the self-determination of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, let them join the federation. Let's make self-determination the key to issues in the region. Ukraine and Georgia have both submitted applications to NATO. Let's let them in right away. Everyone should be happy, right? They won't be. Again, we should ask ourselves why.

OEC (enjoying the argument ad absurdum)

[Bacchus88]

No Diablo It goes back to MAD Mutual assured destruction there is no winner... all we would have to do would be to call their bluff. Carrier battle group could do that, most of our ship can lunch nuclear missiles. The hint that there is Stealth bombers in the air, B-1bs or our work horse the B-52s...

Now the only real treat I see out of the Russia is the sub fleet. Most be almost like crusade to find them, and destroy them .

Now US in matter of weeks would have air superiority over Russia. Right now we are not even in war with we have air superiority. Hit major Military in instillation, North Fleet HQ and Black Sea fleet. Radar station, Air fields ect. 82nd Airborne can drop in onto enemy Air base take over in 36 hours or less have bombers and support flying mission. That why it was so import to get Baghdad International airport that give us a forward air base. We get air superiority Diablo, war is going badly for Russian. Their navy destory, Airbase are under our control meaning those key ICBMs would be also under our control. Give them the option , of surrender total surrender.

If they reject, carpet bomb the cities break them. Think about 100s B-52 load down with 70,000 Lbs laying waste to Moscow and other major cities, running day and night. Granted the US would never do that unless pushed, not another western nation. Also sent we have lost more soldier to urban fight than anything else bombing is such massive might be an option.


OEC (we do try a little on here or at I do)
The way I would go about this, to help cool off thing let South Ossetia and Abkhazia go to Russia. Nato and US needs to back off of the Old soviet block countries for now. Try to keep go relation with those country until it more stable political climate to allow them to join. Otherwise you are goig to push the Bear and he going lash out again.